My apologies for the delay in updates - I am back now after grading + vacation!

Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 06 2021 9548 42602 306 80 484 640
January 07 2021 9630 42738 306 83 541 655
January 08 2021 9682 42852 308 84 564 682
January 09 2021 9720 43060 308 87 538 720
January 10 2021 9789 43265 310 87 530 725
January 11 2021 9809 43387 311 87 514 720
January 12 2021 9856 43469 312 88 561 738
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 4.3 7.1% 40 0.35% 54 0.47%
10-19 11 7.7 11.4% 64 0.47% 76 0.56%
20-29 9 14.1 26.6% 149 0.71% 177 0.85%
30-39 5 6.7 13.7% 77 0.57% 114 0.84%
40-49 7 6.1 9.4% 53 0.51% 77 0.74%
50-59 11 8.3 14.1% 79 0.63% 107 0.85%
60-69 5 5.7 9.8% 55 0.48% 73 0.63%
70+ -2 3.0 7.8% 44 0.42% 61 0.58%
All ages 47 56.0 100% 561 0.54% 738 0.71%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 06 2021 6067 25352 179 67 282 377
January 07 2021 6093 25432 179 67 296 366
January 08 2021 6176 25499 179 67 362 448
January 09 2021 6227 25555 181 70 388 494
January 10 2021 6264 25622 181 70 362 479
January 11 2021 6295 25658 182 70 372 498
January 12 2021 6343 25700 183 70 420 529
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 3.0 6.9% 29 0.37% 35 0.45%
10-19 1 4.4 9% 38 0.45% 54 0.64%
20-29 10 9.0 18.8% 79 1.11% 89 1.25%
30-39 4 6.6 12.9% 54 0.64% 68 0.81%
40-49 7 7.0 13.3% 56 0.72% 76 0.98%
50-59 2 5.3 13.3% 56 0.58% 72 0.74%
60-69 3 5.6 11.7% 49 0.58% 66 0.79%
70+ 18 6.0 14% 59 0.83% 69 0.97%
All ages 48 46.9 100% 420 0.65% 529 0.82%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 06 2021 4585 16970 194 58 192 277
January 07 2021 4629 17012 195 58 231 287
January 08 2021 4679 17092 196 58 275 313
January 09 2021 4705 17124 197 58 270 339
January 10 2021 4724 17167 197 58 252 331
January 11 2021 4737 17185 197 58 230 339
January 12 2021 4760 17199 200 58 247 356
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 1.7 6.1% 15 0.28% 22 0.41%
10-19 1 2.9 9.3% 23 0.42% 44 0.81%
20-29 4 3.9 13% 32 0.71% 50 1.11%
30-39 3 3.3 13.8% 34 0.63% 51 0.94%
40-49 3 4.7 16.2% 40 0.8% 53 1.06%
50-59 4 3.7 17% 42 0.62% 57 0.84%
60-69 2 3.7 11.7% 29 0.46% 40 0.63%
70+ 4 3.7 13% 32 0.51% 39 0.62%
All ages 23 27.6 100% 247 0.55% 356 0.79%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 06 2021 10482 45984 252 61 651 760
January 07 2021 10545 46117 255 63 678 771
January 08 2021 10593 46291 256 63 684 818
January 09 2021 10691 46395 260 63 697 916
January 10 2021 10717 46480 262 63 592 886
January 11 2021 10775 46568 263 63 617 908
January 12 2021 10817 46739 266 64 657 908
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 2.6 5.5% 36 0.3% 52 0.44%
10-19 6 5.9 11.1% 73 0.44% 102 0.62%
20-29 7 13.3 21.8% 143 0.67% 199 0.94%
30-39 9 12.0 16.4% 108 0.79% 153 1.13%
40-49 2 8.0 13.7% 90 0.66% 129 0.95%
50-59 4 6.7 11.4% 75 0.53% 93 0.66%
60-69 4 6.9 9.4% 62 0.44% 87 0.61%
70+ 7 6.3 10.7% 70 0.54% 93 0.72%
All ages 42 61.6 100% 657 0.56% 908 0.77%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 06 2021 34337 296458 1046 190 1782 2332
January 07 2021 34723 297069 1042 203 2002 2510
January 08 2021 35008 297654 1047 203 2218 2634
January 09 2021 35189 298198 1052 211 2233 2814
January 10 2021 35391 298787 1055 211 2078 2836
January 11 2021 35526 299345 1058 211 1987 2805
January 12 2021 35633 299369 1061 214 2094 2843
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 6 11.1 5.3% 111 0.18% 151 0.25%
10-19 19 27.6 12.7% 266 0.37% 333 0.47%
20-29 15 57.7 25.6% 536 0.52% 721 0.69%
30-39 19 36.3 17% 356 0.47% 519 0.68%
40-49 16 32.0 15.1% 316 0.48% 426 0.65%
50-59 7 24.7 11.9% 250 0.38% 342 0.52%
60-69 12 13.9 6.8% 143 0.26% 205 0.37%
70+ 13 9.7 5.5% 116 0.24% 146 0.3%
All ages 107 213.0 100% 2094 0.38% 2843 0.52%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 06 2021 494747 2377053 21971 5039 23929 31153
January 07 2021 498538 2383410 22070 5079 26385 32145
January 08 2021 502012 2390538 22206 5119 27475 34113
January 09 2021 505058 2396106 22326 5155 27766 36527
January 10 2021 506890 2401736 22378 5157 25788 36072
January 11 2021 508346 2405734 22434 5162 25339 36193
January 12 2021 511136 2409580 22583 5211 27051 36599
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 123 145.6 5.3% 1434 0.22% 1880 0.29%
10-19 303 342.4 12% 3256 0.43% 4334 0.57%
20-29 534 513.3 17.6% 4757 0.63% 6419 0.85%
30-39 427 436.1 15.5% 4199 0.55% 5759 0.76%
40-49 402 402.9 14.1% 3813 0.55% 5177 0.74%
50-59 379 414.4 14.7% 3976 0.49% 5430 0.67%
60-69 338 305.1 10.9% 2950 0.39% 4008 0.53%
70+ 284 268.0 9.9% 2666 0.42% 3593 0.56%
All ages 2790 2827.9 100% 27051 0.46% 36599 0.63%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
70.5 55.9 84.6 56 42.1 28%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
81.8 46.9 27.9 43.6%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
78.7 27.6 20.1 39.3%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
76.8 61.6 93.5 61.6 54.7 32%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
52 46.9 69.4 213 166.4 31.8%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
62.9 57.3 84.8 2827.9 2158.3 33.6%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

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Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.59 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-02 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4577"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red