Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 06 2021 | 9548 | 42602 | 306 | 80 | 484 | 640 |
| January 07 2021 | 9630 | 42738 | 306 | 83 | 541 | 655 |
| January 08 2021 | 9682 | 42852 | 308 | 84 | 564 | 682 |
| January 09 2021 | 9720 | 43060 | 308 | 87 | 538 | 720 |
| January 10 2021 | 9789 | 43265 | 310 | 87 | 530 | 725 |
| January 11 2021 | 9809 | 43387 | 311 | 87 | 514 | 720 |
| January 12 2021 | 9856 | 43469 | 312 | 88 | 561 | 738 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 4.3 | 7.1% | 40 | 0.35% | 54 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 7.7 | 11.4% | 64 | 0.47% | 76 | 0.56% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 14.1 | 26.6% | 149 | 0.71% | 177 | 0.85% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 6.7 | 13.7% | 77 | 0.57% | 114 | 0.84% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 6.1 | 9.4% | 53 | 0.51% | 77 | 0.74% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 8.3 | 14.1% | 79 | 0.63% | 107 | 0.85% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 5.7 | 9.8% | 55 | 0.48% | 73 | 0.63% |
| 70+ | -2 | 3.0 | 7.8% | 44 | 0.42% | 61 | 0.58% |
| All ages | 47 | 56.0 | 100% | 561 | 0.54% | 738 | 0.71% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 06 2021 | 6067 | 25352 | 179 | 67 | 282 | 377 |
| January 07 2021 | 6093 | 25432 | 179 | 67 | 296 | 366 |
| January 08 2021 | 6176 | 25499 | 179 | 67 | 362 | 448 |
| January 09 2021 | 6227 | 25555 | 181 | 70 | 388 | 494 |
| January 10 2021 | 6264 | 25622 | 181 | 70 | 362 | 479 |
| January 11 2021 | 6295 | 25658 | 182 | 70 | 372 | 498 |
| January 12 2021 | 6343 | 25700 | 183 | 70 | 420 | 529 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.0 | 6.9% | 29 | 0.37% | 35 | 0.45% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 4.4 | 9% | 38 | 0.45% | 54 | 0.64% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 9.0 | 18.8% | 79 | 1.11% | 89 | 1.25% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 6.6 | 12.9% | 54 | 0.64% | 68 | 0.81% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 7.0 | 13.3% | 56 | 0.72% | 76 | 0.98% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 5.3 | 13.3% | 56 | 0.58% | 72 | 0.74% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 5.6 | 11.7% | 49 | 0.58% | 66 | 0.79% |
| 70+ | 18 | 6.0 | 14% | 59 | 0.83% | 69 | 0.97% |
| All ages | 48 | 46.9 | 100% | 420 | 0.65% | 529 | 0.82% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 06 2021 | 4585 | 16970 | 194 | 58 | 192 | 277 |
| January 07 2021 | 4629 | 17012 | 195 | 58 | 231 | 287 |
| January 08 2021 | 4679 | 17092 | 196 | 58 | 275 | 313 |
| January 09 2021 | 4705 | 17124 | 197 | 58 | 270 | 339 |
| January 10 2021 | 4724 | 17167 | 197 | 58 | 252 | 331 |
| January 11 2021 | 4737 | 17185 | 197 | 58 | 230 | 339 |
| January 12 2021 | 4760 | 17199 | 200 | 58 | 247 | 356 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.7 | 6.1% | 15 | 0.28% | 22 | 0.41% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 2.9 | 9.3% | 23 | 0.42% | 44 | 0.81% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 3.9 | 13% | 32 | 0.71% | 50 | 1.11% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 3.3 | 13.8% | 34 | 0.63% | 51 | 0.94% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 4.7 | 16.2% | 40 | 0.8% | 53 | 1.06% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 3.7 | 17% | 42 | 0.62% | 57 | 0.84% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.7 | 11.7% | 29 | 0.46% | 40 | 0.63% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.7 | 13% | 32 | 0.51% | 39 | 0.62% |
| All ages | 23 | 27.6 | 100% | 247 | 0.55% | 356 | 0.79% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 06 2021 | 10482 | 45984 | 252 | 61 | 651 | 760 |
| January 07 2021 | 10545 | 46117 | 255 | 63 | 678 | 771 |
| January 08 2021 | 10593 | 46291 | 256 | 63 | 684 | 818 |
| January 09 2021 | 10691 | 46395 | 260 | 63 | 697 | 916 |
| January 10 2021 | 10717 | 46480 | 262 | 63 | 592 | 886 |
| January 11 2021 | 10775 | 46568 | 263 | 63 | 617 | 908 |
| January 12 2021 | 10817 | 46739 | 266 | 64 | 657 | 908 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.6 | 5.5% | 36 | 0.3% | 52 | 0.44% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 5.9 | 11.1% | 73 | 0.44% | 102 | 0.62% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 13.3 | 21.8% | 143 | 0.67% | 199 | 0.94% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 12.0 | 16.4% | 108 | 0.79% | 153 | 1.13% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 8.0 | 13.7% | 90 | 0.66% | 129 | 0.95% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 6.7 | 11.4% | 75 | 0.53% | 93 | 0.66% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 6.9 | 9.4% | 62 | 0.44% | 87 | 0.61% |
| 70+ | 7 | 6.3 | 10.7% | 70 | 0.54% | 93 | 0.72% |
| All ages | 42 | 61.6 | 100% | 657 | 0.56% | 908 | 0.77% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 06 2021 | 34337 | 296458 | 1046 | 190 | 1782 | 2332 |
| January 07 2021 | 34723 | 297069 | 1042 | 203 | 2002 | 2510 |
| January 08 2021 | 35008 | 297654 | 1047 | 203 | 2218 | 2634 |
| January 09 2021 | 35189 | 298198 | 1052 | 211 | 2233 | 2814 |
| January 10 2021 | 35391 | 298787 | 1055 | 211 | 2078 | 2836 |
| January 11 2021 | 35526 | 299345 | 1058 | 211 | 1987 | 2805 |
| January 12 2021 | 35633 | 299369 | 1061 | 214 | 2094 | 2843 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 11.1 | 5.3% | 111 | 0.18% | 151 | 0.25% |
| 10-19 | 19 | 27.6 | 12.7% | 266 | 0.37% | 333 | 0.47% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 57.7 | 25.6% | 536 | 0.52% | 721 | 0.69% |
| 30-39 | 19 | 36.3 | 17% | 356 | 0.47% | 519 | 0.68% |
| 40-49 | 16 | 32.0 | 15.1% | 316 | 0.48% | 426 | 0.65% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 24.7 | 11.9% | 250 | 0.38% | 342 | 0.52% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 13.9 | 6.8% | 143 | 0.26% | 205 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 13 | 9.7 | 5.5% | 116 | 0.24% | 146 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 107 | 213.0 | 100% | 2094 | 0.38% | 2843 | 0.52% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 06 2021 | 494747 | 2377053 | 21971 | 5039 | 23929 | 31153 |
| January 07 2021 | 498538 | 2383410 | 22070 | 5079 | 26385 | 32145 |
| January 08 2021 | 502012 | 2390538 | 22206 | 5119 | 27475 | 34113 |
| January 09 2021 | 505058 | 2396106 | 22326 | 5155 | 27766 | 36527 |
| January 10 2021 | 506890 | 2401736 | 22378 | 5157 | 25788 | 36072 |
| January 11 2021 | 508346 | 2405734 | 22434 | 5162 | 25339 | 36193 |
| January 12 2021 | 511136 | 2409580 | 22583 | 5211 | 27051 | 36599 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 123 | 145.6 | 5.3% | 1434 | 0.22% | 1880 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 303 | 342.4 | 12% | 3256 | 0.43% | 4334 | 0.57% |
| 20-29 | 534 | 513.3 | 17.6% | 4757 | 0.63% | 6419 | 0.85% |
| 30-39 | 427 | 436.1 | 15.5% | 4199 | 0.55% | 5759 | 0.76% |
| 40-49 | 402 | 402.9 | 14.1% | 3813 | 0.55% | 5177 | 0.74% |
| 50-59 | 379 | 414.4 | 14.7% | 3976 | 0.49% | 5430 | 0.67% |
| 60-69 | 338 | 305.1 | 10.9% | 2950 | 0.39% | 4008 | 0.53% |
| 70+ | 284 | 268.0 | 9.9% | 2666 | 0.42% | 3593 | 0.56% |
| All ages | 2790 | 2827.9 | 100% | 27051 | 0.46% | 36599 | 0.63% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70.5 | 55.9 | 84.6 | 56 | 42.1 | 28% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81.8 | 46.9 | 27.9 | 43.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78.7 | 27.6 | 20.1 | 39.3% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76.8 | 61.6 | 93.5 | 61.6 | 54.7 | 32% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 46.9 | 69.4 | 213 | 166.4 | 31.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62.9 | 57.3 | 84.8 | 2827.9 | 2158.3 | 33.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.59 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-02 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4577"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges